Thursday, May 15, 2014

Economist: U.S. banks could fare better in next recession

There could be another global recession in the next 24 months, and banks with large exposure to foreign markets will be more in jeopardy during a downturn than those with less exposure, an economist said Thursday in Charlotte.

David Levy, chairman of the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, who spoke at a luncheon for the Charlotte Economics Club, said there's a threat of a recession from overseas economies. What could help trigger a recession, he said, is a slowdown in investments in factories and port facilities as countries see flattening growth in exports.

"It's kind of a slow-motion train wreck. I'm not sure if the locomotive yet has made contact with the brick wall that it's going to hit. But it is close," said Levy, a New York resident.

Another recession could cause U.S. unemployment to rise by "several percentage points," he said. But U.S. banks could fare much better than banks in other countries in the next downturn, he said.

"One of the great things the U.S. banking system has going for it is it is much less international than the European banks. The European banks have enormous external exposure."

Levy has been talking about the possibility of another global recession for years. In 2010, he was putting the chances of one starting within a year or so at around 60 percent, according to this piece on


Forex Signals said...

As we are aware that there was an ear in US when there is boom of recession arrived but now they somehow overcome from this.